Five Forks, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

584
FXUS62 KGSP 031808
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
108 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend begins today and continues through at least Tuesday.
Wednesday will be cooler as another brief period of cold air damming
sets up over the region. Dry conditions will linger through Tuesday
before unsettled weather returns Wednesday night and lingers into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 10 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Fog and Low Stratus Continue late this Morning for Some Locations

2) Warmer and Well Above Normal Temperatures Return Today

3) Breezy Winds Develop this Afternoon into Tonight

Other than some thin upper cirrus and mid-level altostratus over
our northernmost zones and some thick stratus/fog over our eastern-
most zones, we are mostly clear. Any lingering fog/low stratus should
erode/dissipate over the next hr or so with increased daytime heating.

Otherwise, dry conditions will linger thru the near term. With winds
expected to pick up out of the S/SW later this morning and mostly
sunny skies developing by early afternoon, highs will end up well
above normal (~15-20 degrees). Temps this afternoon will climb into
the mid 60s to lower 70s across the lower elevations and the mid 50s
to lower 60s across the higher elevations. Breezy winds will develop
by this afternoon, lingering through tonight. Winds will gradually
turn NW across the mountains overnight, allowing mostly cloudy skies
to develop along the NC/TN border. This will also allow wind gusts
across the mountains to increase overnight. Gusts will remain well
below advisory criteria through the period. Mostly clear skies will
continue east of the western NC mountains, outside of some passing
cirrus. Lows tonight will be noticeably warmer, ranging mostly from
the lower to upper 40s (~15 degrees above normal).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 157 AM Monday: The synoptic pattern will remain relatively
unchanged heading into Tuesday with a belt of broad quasi-zonal
westerlies draped from the Great Basin to the Southern Appalachians.
Tuesday will likely be the warmest day of the forecast period with
afternoon highs soaring well above average into the low to mid 70s
beneath mostly sunny skies and warming low-level temperatures. A
diffuse frontal boundary will also be making a run at the area from
the northwest, but a dearth of moisture and upper forcing will
result in a dry front. A stray shower cannot be completely ruled out
across the mountains, however. By Wednesday, sprawling surface high
pressure will slide out of the Great Lakes region and into New
England in a configuration favorable for the development of cold air
damming. A resulting backdoor front is progged to ooze into the area
from the north/northeast with increasing cloud cover as moisture is
lifted atop the cold dome. This will result in noticeably cooler
highs with a brief lull in the warming trend. At the same time, the
first in a series of flat waves embedded within the broader
background westerlies will lift from the middle Mississippi Valley
to the Ohio Valley. Most of the forcing for ascent will be displaced
north of the area with mainly just scattered showers scraping along
the mountains during the day on Wednesday. The main trough axis will
pass by Wednesday night, which combined with modest isentropic
ascent atop the CAD wedge, should prove sufficient to foster at
least scattered showers across the mountains and along/north of the
I-85 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 211 AM Monday: Forecast confidence continues to wane late week
into the weekend as predictability within the quasi-zonal flow
regime with regards to the passage of addition waves remains low. A
residual CAD regime Wednesday night will quickly break down on
Thursday as the progressive parent high rapidly translates offshore
with flow swinging back to out of the south/southeast. This will
place much of the area within an open warm sector as a cold front
drops out of the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley. Local vorticity
maximums embedded within broad westerly flow interacting with the
frontal boundary will likely result in blossoming upstream showers
across Tennessee with at least some of this activity intruding into
the mountains along the Tennessee border with a couple isolated to
scattered showers possible east of the mountains. Thursday could
also be a rather warm day, but confidence has lowered given
uncertainty with the coverage of showers and associated cloud cover.
Guidance continues to waffle on southeast progression of the
upstream frontal boundary heading into Friday. The front will become
oriented parallel to the upper flow with nebulous forcing. Guidance
has trended towards hanging the front up across or just north of the
area with the potential for a few showers to slide across the area
on the warm/moist side of the front. A more pronounced trough on
Sunday should finally break up the stagnant pattern and finally kick
a strong cold front through the area around Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR conditions to continue thru the
18z taf period. Other than few to sct high clouds, skies should
remain mostly clear. Winds will pick up out of the S/SW this aftn
while gradually increasing in speed. Some sporadic low-end gusts
are possible this aftn/evening, but confidence was too low to include
in the tafs. Most of the near-term guidance continues to depict a
few hrs of LLWS across most of our fcst area overnight Tues. Thus,
LLWS was included at all taf sites except KHKY. At KAVL, the LLWS
will likely persist thru much of the morning. Otherwise, winds will
eventually veer around to NWLY on Tues afternoon and continue to veer
to NLY to NELY at KCLT by the end of the period early Tues evening.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected thru at least Tuesday afternoon.
A backdoor cold front will slip in from the north Tuesday night and
could produce some restrictions beginning early Wednesday. The front
lifts north of the area on Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 02-04

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      73 1890     14 1996     52 1927     -2 1917
   KCLT      76 1927     22 1996     60 1899     11 1886
   KGSP      76 1927     27 1996     58 1927      7 1917

RECORDS FOR 02-06

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      71 1938     22 1889     55 2020      6 1966
   KCLT      79 1927     30 1923     60 2020     13 1977
   KGSP      73 1927     32 1980     59 2020      8 1917
                            1978
                            1923

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TW
NEAR TERM...AR/JPT
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...JPT
CLIMATE...AR